British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is “probably safe” for now despite a scathing report into government lockdown parties, but his long-term future is “very much out of his hands” as police probe the claims, analysts said on Tuesday.
Johnson on Monday apologised after his government was criticised for “failures of leadership and judgment” in allowing parties at his offices during lockdown.
His position has been hanging by a thread because of the steady drip of revelations since late last year, leading to an increasingly mutinous mood among his MPs.
Senior civil servant Sue Gray published her report into the claims on Monday, but only a watered-down version as she has passed on the most serious accusations to the police to investigate.
This has given Johnson some breathing space, but “given how much is being investigated by the police, that is going to hurt him very hard,” Simon Usherwood, political and international studies professor at the Open University, told AFP.
“He’s probably safe for the next short period of time but I think yesterday has really highlighted that it’s very much out of his hand at this point,” he added.
The timeline “is probably weeks rather then months,” he added.
– ‘Mark of shame’ –
Despite being limited in what she could say, Gray still managed a stinging rebuke to the prime minister’s authority, contrasting government officials’ behaviour with the sacrifices made by the public during the pandemic.
“Too little thought” had been given about how appropriate boozy events were and would be seen as others stuck to the rules, unable to comfort sick and dying loved ones with Covid.
“Some of the events should not have been allowed to take place. Other events should not have been allowed to develop as they did,” she added.
Opposition Labour leader Keir Starmer said the fact that 12 of the 16 parties, including one in Johnson’s own flat, were subject to a police probe was “a mark of shame”.
Anand Menon, European politics and foreign affairs professor at King’s College London, said Johnson was “slightly more in jeopardy” than before the report was published. However, he said the lack of any obvious candidates for MPs to coalesce around was helping the prime minister.
“I think one of the reasons why he’s still there is precisely because his MPs are unconvinced by any of the alternatives.
“Boris Johnson created quite a unique electoral coalition.
“There is a recognition in the parliamentary party that it takes someone as ideologically ambiguous as Johnson to hold that coalition together, because he’s unique in the fact that he can appeal to red-wall voters (in former Labour strongholds), and he can appeal to traditional Tories.
“That’s not obviously the case with any of his potential successors,” he added.
– ‘Hesitation to act’ –
Johnson could quit if he “gets a whiff” that police have got damaging evidence, but it would be more likely that he is deposed by his own MPs, said Menon.
For this to happen, 54 of them would have to send letters of no-confidence to trigger a vote.
More than half of the party’s 359 MPs would then have to vote him out of office, triggering a leadership campaign.
But this process can only occur once within a 12-month period, another factor that rebellious MPs need to take into account.
“I think for a lot of MPs, they probably think he should go but are not sure that now is quite the right time to move. So there’s a very strong sort of hesitation to act,” said Menon.
“For some it’s ‘wait for the Met’ (police). For some it’s ‘wait for Sue Gray’, for some it’s ‘wait for the local elections'” in May.
Police are investigating a cocktail party in May 2020 in the Downing Street garden, as well as Christmas celebrations, and a drink-fuelled get-together the evening before before Prince Philip’s funeral.
Staff reportedly brought a suitcase filled with alcohol and danced until the small hours.
Queen Elizabeth II was subsequently pictured at the funeral, sat alone in the chapel at Windsor Castle, mourning her husband of 73 years.
Downing Street later apologised to the monarch.
© Agence France-Presse
